When the Orioles left the dugout to wave to the fans at Camden Yards after Game 162 on Wednesday, there was a sense of hope around the park despite Baltimore missing the playoffs. Many of those players on the field will be key pieces in the Orioles’ ramp-up next season.
“We plan to hopefully reinforce this group, keep helping the players improve and hope that we can take another step forward next season and get into the playoffs that we narrowly missed out on this year,” executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias said.
What and who those reinforcements are remains to be seen. Elias was understandably mum about which areas Baltimore will look for external additions, and he didn’t put a dollar value on the Orioles’ spending pool this offseason. But after their first winning season since 2016, there’s a positive feeling heading into the winter.
As the Orioles begin their offseason, Baltimore Sun beat reporters Nathan Ruiz and Andy Kostka give their expert opinions about the 2022 season, trade possibilities and next year’s expectations.
NEW | Although dueling Angelos family lawsuits cloud the offseason forecast, the Orioles organization and fans are hopeful for playoff baseball in 2023. “It’s the beginning of a comeback. This team is gonna take us places.”https://t.co/XUBoetCACS
Ruiz: Backup catcher. Last week, Elias pointed out that there’s no obvious area for the Orioles to target this winter, partly because they have “very interesting internal candidates for almost every single job.” The prospective backup for Adley Rutschman justifies the “almost” by itself. With Rutschman as their starting catcher, they went 50-34 (a 96-win pace), meaning they were 33-45 (a 69-win pace) otherwise.
The Orioles consistently praised what veteran Robinson Chirinos provided in the clubhouse and dugout, but whenever he played, the Orioles replaced one of the game’s top framing catchers with its worst. He also posted the third-lowest OPS of any catcher with at least 200 plate appearances. It’s a clear area to upgrade.
Kostka: Perhaps the largest and most telling thing the Orioles can do is sign Rutschman — and maybe even rookie Gunnar Henderson — to a long-term contract. It’s a trend around the league to bypass the arbitration years and lock in young, talented players.
The Atlanta Braves secured outfielder Michael Harris II with an eight-year, $72 million deal. The Seattle Mariners did the same with a 12-year, $210 million contract for American League Rookie of the Year front-runner Julio Rodríguez. The Orioles have Rutschman — another AL Rookie of the Year candidate — and Henderson, who could be in the running for the same award next year. Elias didn’t tip his hand on whether those long-term contracts are a tactic he will also employ with some of Baltimore’s young stars, but it would show an extended commitment.
Orioles pitcher Dean Kremer posted a 3.23 ERA and established himself as a clear rotation piece entering 2023. (Gail Burton/AP)
Ruiz: Dean Kremer ended 2021 in the minors, finishing the year with a 7.55 ERA in the majors and only one second-half start. In his 13 appearances for the Orioles, he allowed at least four earned runs six times. He had only four such outings in 2022, posting a 3.23 ERA and establishing himself as a clear rotation piece entering 2023.
In some ways, Bruce Zimmermann experienced Kremer’s 2021 this year, as he was relegated to the minors for much of the second half after entering the year with high expectations. With Kremer and other arms having established themselves in 2022, it’s unclear whether there’s still space or time for Zimmermann in the Orioles’ long-term plans.
Kostka: At the start of last season, Félix Bautista was at High-A Aberdeen as a relative unknown in the organization. But it didn’t take long for the right-handed reliever to rapidly rise through the minor league system. And it didn’t take long after that for Bautista to become one of the top closers in baseball, with a splitter that ranks among the best in the league. Bautista finished his first major league season as the primary closer with 15 saves to go with 88 strikeouts and 23 walks. There was intrigue in his ability to throw hard — he topped 100 mph plenty this year — but what Bautista did far surpassed those hopes.
On the other end, center fielder Cedric Mullins entered the season on the back of an All-Star campaign, becoming the first Oriole to record 30 steals and 30 homers in a single season. By his wins above replacement metrics, Mullins was still one of their best players this season with 34 steals and his usual defense, but he underperformed at the plate. In his second year hitting left-handed full time, pitchers had a better idea of how to attack him. The low, inside two-seamers and sinkers under Mullins’ hands worked. After recording an OPS+ of 137 last season (100 being average), Mullins ended 2022 at 104 — and was as low as 93 in early June.
Orioles infield prospect Jordan Westburg could be a potential trade piece. (Billy Schuerman/The Virginian-Pilot)
Ruiz: Given Elias’ acknowledgment that he will need to move prospects if Baltimore is going to add to its roster via trades and the Orioles’ stockpile of upper minors position players, it seems that would be the likeliest group they deal from, with a plethora of infield options in particular. Connor Norby was the NCAA hits leader in 2021, then the second-rounder led Orioles minor leaguers in home runs in his full season in 2022. But Norby, Baltimore’s No. 12 prospect according to Baseball America, is defensively limited compared to Jordan Westburg and Joey Ortiz, with 1,136 of his 1,196 1/3 professional defensive innings coming at second base. He ended this year with a brief stint at Triple-A, proximity to the majors that could interest a rebuilding team. Of course, Westburg’s versatility, major league readiness and do-it-all package might need to be parted with depending on how high the Orioles aim in trade talks.
Kostka: The Orioles’ minor league player of the year, Westburg, should be in major league camp at spring training next year. The question is: Which major league camp will that be? As Baltimore begins its postseason aspirations, a buy-side trade is likely, particularly for a starting pitcher with team control. Westburg, a breakout position player, could be included, particularly because his infield positions might be taken by Henderson and a potential free agent signing. Westburg, a first-round selection in 2020, rose to Triple-A this year and slashed .274/.361/.508. A major league debut is around the corner.
Orioles rookie DL Hall’s final eight outings saw the hard-throwing left-hander allow one run in 8 2/3 innings, striking out 11, walking two and earning a save at Yankee Stadium. (Adam Hunger/AP)
Ruiz: The overall final stat line wasn’t pretty, but DL Hall’s final eight outings saw the hard-throwing left-hander allow one run in 8 2/3 innings while striking out 11, walking two and earning a save at Yankee Stadium. He had the lowest hard-hit rate of any pitcher who allowed at least 25 balls in play, according to Baseball Savant, while the expected weighted on-base average — a metric similar to on-base percentage that weighs how the player reached base — against each of his pitches was below .300. Whether he finds himself as a starter or reliever in 2023, it’s clear he has an impactful arm.
Kostka: Grayson Rodriguez might’ve been with the Orioles already if he hadn’t suffered a Grade 2 lat muscle strain midway through the summer. He returned, solidified himself in Norfolk again and pushed for a debut that didn’t come. But Elias said he hopes Rodriguez is in the opening day rotation next year, and if Rodriguez is, the top pitching prospect in baseball has an electric arm. He struck out 109 batters in 75 2/3 innings in the minors in 2022, and his 2.62 ERA was the lowest among Orioles minor leaguers with 50 or more innings.
Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias has already promised to increase payroll this offseason; picking up Jordan Lyles’ option — worth $11 million with a $1 million buyout — is basically a $3 million increase on his 2022 salary. (Adam Hunger/AP)
Ruiz: Yes. The Orioles’ rotation was rather stable throughout this year, even though it received only 11 2/3 combined innings from John Means, Baltimore’s opening day starter, and Rodriguez and Hall, the organization’s top two pitching prospects. That’s largely a credit to Lyles, who finished an inning shy of his career high at 179, but that total was the most an Oriole has thrown in the past five years. That dependability will be vital if Baltimore hopes to make a playoff run, especially with Means not expected back from Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery until midseason.
Elias has already promised to increase payroll this offseason; picking up Lyles’ option — worth $11 million with a $1 million buyout — is basically a $3 million increase on his 2022 salary. The Orioles paid more than that for a new wall. There’s also nothing stopping them from trading him if other starters enter the fold. They picked up shortstop José Iglesias’ option after 2020, then moved him a month later.
Kostka: No. Take nothing away from what Lyles did this year. The 179 innings, for one, were a huge boost. He also mentored a young starting staff. But with Means on his way back, and Rodriguez, Hall, Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish and Dean Kremer all looking to make a jump, there might not be room for Lyles, no matter how many innings he’d like to eat. With plenty of starting pitching options expected in this offseason’s free-agent class and in the trade market, the Orioles can thank Lyles for a lot, then perhaps part ways with eyes on the future.